Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points21
- Nikola JokicAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–121
- Q49.0Jalen Pickett makes 27-foot three point jumper (Hunter Tyson assists)109–121
- Q417.1shot clock turnover106–121
- Q442.1Justin Holiday makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)106–121
- Q451.0Nuggets defensive team rebound103–121
- Q451.1Sam Merrill misses 25-foot three point jumper103–121
- Q41:12Zeke Nnaji makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)103–121
- Q41:26Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter assists)100–121
- Q41:45Justin Holiday makes 23-foot three point shot (Collin Gillespie assists)100–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:05Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point shotDEN 29 – 35 CLE · CLE 42% → 49% +7CLE 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q27:03Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 38 – 46 CLE · DEN 36% → 44% +7DEN 36% → 44%+7 pts
- Q24:03Julian Strawther makes 23-foot three point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 51 – 51 CLE · DEN 56% → 63% +8DEN 56% → 63%+8 pts
- Q21:04Reggie Jackson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zeke Nnaji assists)DEN 56 – 61 CLE · DEN 40% → 49% +9DEN 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q21.0Darius Garland makes 27-foot three pointer (Georges Niang assists)DEN 58 – 66 CLE · CLE 52% → 61% +9CLE 52% → 61%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5
- DEN 69%
- Fair odds
- DEN -206
- CLE +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.4 – 108.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +165 | −2 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Missing Caris LeVert −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +135 Elo | DEN 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 110.323rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 111.211th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.1 | Margin | −0.820th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 109.421st of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 110.312th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.9 | Pace | 100.520th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+165 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−2 Elo- Caris LeVert sore left knee−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.