Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Stanley UmudePoints19
- Marcus SasserAssists6
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds10
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints23
- Scottie BarnesAssists9
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–142
- Q45.0shot clock turnover113–142
- Q429.1James Wiseman makes layup (Marcus Sasser assists)113–142
- Q433.1Kevin Knox II offensive rebound111–142
- Q435.1Kevin Knox II misses 9-foot two point shot111–142
- Q441.1Pistons offensive team rebound111–142
- Q442.1Chris Boucher blocks Kevin Knox II 's 23-foot three point pullup jump shot111–142
- Q450.2Stanley Umude defensive rebound111–142
- Q452.1Jalen McDaniels misses two point shot111–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:35O.G. Anunoby makes 24-foot three point shot (Pascal Siakam assists)DET 3 – 8 TOR · TOR 66% → 72% +6TOR 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q16:46Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotDET 12 – 14 TOR · DET 28% → 34% +6DET 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q12:26Marcus Sasser makes 12-foot pullup jump shotDET 20 – 22 TOR · DET 30% → 35% +4DET 30% → 35%+4 pts
- Q12:13Gary Trent Jr. makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Precious Achiuwa assists)DET 20 – 24 TOR · TOR 65% → 69% +4TOR 65% → 69%+4 pts
- Q11:11Precious Achiuwa makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)DET 20 – 28 TOR · TOR 72% → 77% +6TOR 72% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -3.5
- TOR 64%
- Fair odds
- TOR -164
- DET +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 109.8 – 113.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +10 | DET: Missing Isaiah Livers −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +98 Elo | TOR 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 108.327th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 110.710th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.8 | Margin | −2.421st of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 106.627th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 109.09th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.724th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−11 Elo- Isaiah Livers sprained left ankle−1 Elo
Raptors
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.