Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints37
- Damian LillardAssists13
- Brook LopezRebounds8
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints29
- Scottie BarnesAssists7
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–112
- Q415.1Markquis Nowell makes free throw 2 of 2128–112
- Q415.1Markquis Nowell makes free throw 1 of 2128–111
- Q415.1Lindell Wigginton shooting foul128–110
- Q438.0Garrett Temple defensive rebound128–110
- Q439.1TyTy Washington Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper128–110
- Q41:01Bucks Full timeout128–110
- Q41:01Jalen McDaniels makes dunk (Markquis Nowell assists)128–110
- Q41:03TyTy Washington Jr. lost ball turnover (Markquis Nowell steals)128–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:52Scottie Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)MIL 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 56% → 62% +6TOR 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q17:10Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point shot (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 13 – 8 TOR · MIL 44% → 51% +7MIL 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q16:47Damian Lillard makes 25-foot three pointerMIL 16 – 8 TOR · MIL 51% → 57% +7MIL 51% → 57%+7 pts
- Q16:18Malik Beasley makes 22-foot three point shot (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 19 – 8 TOR · MIL 58% → 64% +6MIL 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q23:16Scottie Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)MIL 54 – 43 TOR · TOR 22% → 29% +7TOR 22% → 29%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -3
- TOR 63%
- Fair odds
- TOR -153
- MIL +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.6 – 114.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +21 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +90 Elo | TOR 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 108.229th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 109.27th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −1.017th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 106.027th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 107.06th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.0 | Pace | 99.825th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.