Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints34
- Tyus JonesAssists8
- Daniel GaffordRebounds9
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints39
- Pascal SiakamAssists7
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–111
- Q41.0Kyle Kuzma bad pass (Malachi Flynn steals)107–111
- Q42.0Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2107–111
- Q42.0Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2107–110
- Q42.0Kyle Kuzma personal take foul107–109
- Q46.1Raptors Full timeout107–109
- Q46.1Kyle Kuzma steps out of bounds turnover107–109
- Q47.1Wizards Full timeout107–109
- Q48.1Pascal Siakam makes 9-foot two point shot107–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:42Corey Kispert makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 94 – 81 TOR · WSH 78% → 86% +8WSH 78% → 86%+8 pts
- Q42:59Chris Boucher makes dunk (Dennis Schroder assists)WSH 107 – 103 TOR · TOR 13% → 24% +11TOR 13% → 24%+11 pts
- Q41:29Scottie Barnes makes 3-foot two point shotWSH 107 – 105 TOR · TOR 14% → 31% +17TOR 14% → 31%+17 pts
- Q451.1Chris Boucher makes two point shot (Pascal Siakam assists)WSH 107 – 107 TOR · TOR 24% → 53% +29TOR 24% → 53%+29 pts
- Q48.1Pascal Siakam makes 9-foot two point shotWSH 107 – 109 TOR · TOR 51% → 98% +46TOR 51% → 98%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -6.5
- TOR 73%
- Fair odds
- TOR -251
- WSH +251 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.5 – 117.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −55 | +13 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +177 Elo | TOR 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 107.929th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.8 | Points allowed | 109.47th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.6 | Margin | −1.617th of 30 |
| 19th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 105.728th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 107.27th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.7 | Pace | 99.626th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.