Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints33
- Deni AvdijaAssists5
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds9
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints34
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Gordon HaywardRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–116
- Q411.1Ish Smith bad pass (Ryan Rollins steals)132–116
- Q420.1shot clock turnover132–116
- Q444.1Nick Richards makes layup132–116
- Q450.1Nick Smith Jr. defensive rebound132–114
- Q452.1Leaky Black blocks Anthony Gill's two point shot132–114
- Q452.1Anthony Gill offensive rebound132–114
- Q457.0Anthony Gill misses layup132–114
- Q41:16Ish Smith bad pass (Eugene Omoruyi steals)132–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:45Danilo Gallinari makes 26-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)WSH 40 – 35 CHA · WSH 43% → 51% +8WSH 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q27:14Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot step back jumpshotWSH 43 – 35 CHA · WSH 51% → 59% +8WSH 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q35:43Gordon Hayward makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)WSH 77 – 67 CHA · CHA 19% → 26% +8CHA 19% → 26%+8 pts
- Q34:33Danilo Gallinari makes 25-foot jump bank shotWSH 82 – 71 CHA · WSH 69% → 78% +9WSH 69% → 78%+9 pts
- Q33:01Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Delon Wright assists)WSH 89 – 77 CHA · WSH 74% → 82% +8WSH 74% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hornets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -3.5
- CHA 64%
- Fair odds
- CHA -178
- WSH +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 114.8 – 119.2 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | +29 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +103 Elo | CHA 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 116.312th of 30 |
| 30th of 30128.7 | Points allowed | 121.727th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.5 | Margin | −5.324th of 30 |
| 17th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 110.612th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.2 | Defense rating | 115.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.1 | Pace | 105.33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.