Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints17
- Precious AchiuwaAssists5
- Pascal SiakamRebounds7
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints29
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–117
- Q413.0shot clock turnover94–117
- Q437.1Thaddeus Young makes 14-foot two point shot94–117
- Q447.1Raptors defensive team rebound92–117
- Q449.1Dalano Banton misses 28-foot three point jumper92–117
- Q453.0Luke Kornet defensive rebound92–117
- Q454.0Thaddeus Young misses tip shot92–117
- Q454.0Thaddeus Young offensive rebound92–117
- Q459.0Jalen McDaniels misses 15-foot two point shot92–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:46Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)TOR 10 – 6 BOS · TOR 45% → 52% +6TOR 45% → 52%+6 pts
- Q17:49Kristaps Porzingis makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)TOR 12 – 9 BOS · BOS 44% → 50% +6BOS 44% → 50%+6 pts
- Q16:23Jaylen Brown makes 27-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)TOR 12 – 15 BOS · BOS 57% → 63% +6BOS 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q13:24Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)TOR 24 – 22 BOS · BOS 45% → 52% +7BOS 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q211:46Sam Hauser makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)TOR 26 – 33 BOS · BOS 65% → 72% +6BOS 65% → 72%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3
- BOS 61%
- Fair odds
- BOS -132
- TOR +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.7 – 113.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | +63 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +79 Elo | BOS 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.6 | Points scored | 120.64th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.5 | Points allowed | 108.47th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +12.31st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 117.33rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30105.9 | Defense rating | 105.35th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.8 | Pace | 101.319th of 30 |
| 9th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.