Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Lonnie Walker IVPoints20
- Dennis Smith Jr.Assists7
- Lonnie Walker IVRebounds7
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints28
- Jrue HolidayAssists9
- Jrue HolidayRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–121
- Q46.1shot clock turnover107–121
- Q430.1Day'Ron Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2107–121
- Q430.1Day'Ron Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2106–121
- Q430.1Oshae Brissett shooting foul105–121
- Q436.1Trendon Watford offensive rebound105–121
- Q438.0Armoni Brooks misses 27-foot three point jumper105–121
- Q446.1Oshae Brissett makes free throw 2 of 2105–121
- Q446.1Celtics offensive team rebound105–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:40Payton Pritchard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BKN 27 – 30 BOS · BOS 63% → 69% +6BOS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q11:58Lonnie Walker IV makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)BKN 30 – 30 BOS · BKN 31% → 37% +6BKN 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q11:36Derrick White makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BKN 30 – 33 BOS · BOS 63% → 69% +6BOS 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q27:46Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 38 – 42 BOS · BKN 23% → 29% +6BKN 23% → 29%+6 pts
- Q24:54Jayson Tatum makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BKN 41 – 54 BOS · BOS 81% → 88% +6BOS 81% → 88%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4.5
- BOS 68%
- Fair odds
- BOS -178
- BKN +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 112.0 – 116.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +60 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +131 Elo | BOS 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 120.63rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 108.69th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +12.01st of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 116.06th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 104.44th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.8 | Pace | 102.312th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.