Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Gordon HaywardPoints27
- Gordon HaywardAssists9
- Mark WilliamsRebounds24
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints17
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Daniel GaffordRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–117
- Q413.1Kyle Kuzma makes 1-foot driving floating jump shot124–117
- Q418.1Mark Williams makes 3-foot dunk124–115
- Q418.1Mark Williams offensive rebound122–115
- Q421.1P.J. Washington misses 24-foot three point jumper122–115
- Q436.1P.J. Washington defensive rebound122–115
- Q439.1Landry Shamet misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot122–115
- Q443.0Landry Shamet enters the game for Deni Avdija122–115
- Q443.0Wizards Full timeout122–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:47LaMelo Ball makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)CHA 106 – 109 WSH · CHA 19% → 33% +14CHA 19% → 33%+14 pts
- Q44:24LaMelo Ball makes 23-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)CHA 110 – 109 WSH · CHA 37% → 57% +20CHA 37% → 57%+20 pts
- Q44:04Kyle Kuzma makes driving layupCHA 110 – 111 WSH · WSH 43% → 57% +14WSH 43% → 57%+14 pts
- Q43:48Gordon Hayward makes 25-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 113 – 111 WSH · CHA 43% → 65% +22CHA 43% → 65%+22 pts
- Q42:26Gordon Hayward makes 9-foot running pullup jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 115 – 111 WSH · CHA 68% → 82% +14CHA 68% → 82%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hornets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -0.5
- CHA 48%
- Fair odds
- CHA -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 117.7 – 117.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −35 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +16 Elo | WSH 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 119.35th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.1 | Points allowed | 126.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.9 | Margin | −7.628th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 111.012th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 118.128th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.1 | Pace | 107.51st of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.