Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints26
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Paolo BancheroRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–112
- Q413.1shot clock turnover97–112
- Q431.1Jalen Suggs defensive rebound97–112
- Q431.1Jonathan Isaac blocks MarJon Beauchamp 's 6-foot two point shot97–112
- Q442.1Jalen Suggs makes 19-foot driving floating jump shot97–112
- Q41:04Andre Jackson Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (AJ Green assists)97–110
- Q41:11Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo95–110
- Q41:11Chris Livingston enters the game for Bobby Portis95–110
- Q41:11shot clock turnover95–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42Cameron Payne makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 3 – 0 ORL · MIL 47% → 53% +6MIL 47% → 53%+6 pts
- Q14:43Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malik Beasley assists)MIL 18 – 13 ORL · MIL 52% → 58% +7MIL 52% → 58%+7 pts
- Q12:28Joe Ingles makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)MIL 18 – 21 ORL · ORL 53% → 60% +7ORL 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q211:28Jonathan Isaac makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)MIL 27 – 32 ORL · ORL 58% → 64% +7ORL 58% → 64%+7 pts
- Q26:11Cameron Payne makes 27-foot three point shot (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 38 – 47 ORL · MIL 20% → 26% +6MIL 20% → 26%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 56%
- Fair odds
- ORL -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 113.4 – 114.4 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | 0 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +40 Elo | ORL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 109.922nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 107.35th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +2.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 106.923rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 104.33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.9 | Pace | 102.810th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.