Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints54
- Cameron PayneAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints29
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–126
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bucks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)124–126
- Q40.1Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)124–126
- Q42.1Bucks Full timeout121–126
- Q42.1Bruce Brown makes free throw 2 of 2121–126
- Q42.1Bruce Brown makes free throw 1 of 2121–125
- Q42.1Jae Crowder personal take foul121–124
- Q43.1Cameron Payne enters the game for Brook Lopez121–124
- Q43.1Pacers Full timeout121–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:21Khris Middleton makes 6-foot two point shotMIL 119 – 115 IND · MIL 61% → 75% +14MIL 61% → 75%+14 pts
- Q43:08Tyrese Haliburton makes 2-foot two point shotMIL 119 – 117 IND · IND 24% → 38% +14IND 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q42:30Bennedict Mathurin makes 6-foot layup (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MIL 119 – 119 IND · IND 36% → 54% +18IND 36% → 54%+18 pts
- Q41:41Cameron Payne makes 2-foot two point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 121 – 119 IND · MIL 47% → 68% +21MIL 47% → 68%+21 pts
- Q41:29Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 121 – 122 IND · IND 30% → 64% +34IND 30% → 64%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4.5
- IND 68%
- Fair odds
- IND -193
- MIL +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 115.3 – 120.3 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | IND and MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | 0 | +75 | MIL: Usual rotation · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +131 Elo | IND 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 126.01st of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 121.326th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +4.89th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 119.11st of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 114.625th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.7 | Pace | 105.82nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.