Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints26
- DeMar DeRozanAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Damian LillardAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–118
- Q48.0shot clock turnover109–118
- Q432.0Pat Connaughton defensive rebound109–118
- Q433.0Zach LaVine misses running pullup jump shot109–118
- Q434.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound109–118
- Q440.1Giannis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2109–118
- Q440.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2109–118
- Q440.1Ayo Dosunmu personal take foul109–117
- Q449.1Zach LaVine makes 28-foot three pointer (DeMar DeRozan assists)109–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:10Khris Middleton makes 26-foot three pointerCHI 56 – 64 MIL · MIL 73% → 80% +7MIL 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q37:19Coby White makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 62 – 64 MIL · CHI 27% → 36% +9CHI 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q36:01Andre Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)CHI 64 – 67 MIL · MIL 58% → 67% +10MIL 58% → 67%+10 pts
- Q34:18Bobby Portis makes two point shotCHI 70 – 71 MIL · MIL 54% → 61% +7MIL 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q32:21Pat Connaughton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)CHI 70 – 79 MIL · MIL 77% → 85% +8MIL 77% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2.5
- MIL 61%
- Fair odds
- MIL -167
- CHI +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 112.4 – 116.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +8 | +12 | CHI: Missing Alex Caruso −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +75 Elo | MIL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.9 | Points scored | 115.78th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 119.325th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.4 | Margin | −3.721st of 30 |
| 18th of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 111.810th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 115.426th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.5 | Pace | 103.37th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+8 Elo- Alex Caruso left toe−4 Elo
Bucks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.