Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints23
- Kristaps PorzingisAssists5
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds12
Raptors- Dennis SchroderPoints23
- Dennis SchroderAssists6
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–105
- Q41.1Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2108–105
- Q41.1Kristaps Porzingis enters the game for Payton Pritchard108–104
- Q41.1Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2108–104
- Q41.1Al Horford personal foul108–103
- Q48.0Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2108–103
- Q48.0Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2107–103
- Q48.0Al Horford enters the game for Jaylen Brown106–103
- Q48.0Celtics Full timeout106–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:12Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 95 – 93 TOR · BOS 49% → 66% +17BOS 49% → 66%+17 pts
- Q41:30Kristaps Porzingis makes 6-foot two point shot (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 101 – 101 TOR · BOS 30% → 53% +23BOS 30% → 53%+23 pts
- Q41:19Jakob Poeltl makes tip shotBOS 101 – 103 TOR · TOR 48% → 72% +24TOR 48% → 72%+24 pts
- Q41:01Kristaps Porzingis makes 6-foot two point shot (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 103 – 103 TOR · BOS 25% → 52% +27BOS 25% → 52%+27 pts
- Q427.1Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 106 – 103 TOR · BOS 51% → 95% +44BOS 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6
- BOS 72%
- Fair odds
- BOS -177
- TOR +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 114.1 – 109.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +89 | −1 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing OG Anunoby −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +166 Elo | BOS 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 108.526th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.0 | Points allowed | 110.98th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+13.4 | Margin | −2.420th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.1 | Offense rating | 106.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.7 | Defense rating | 109.09th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 298–2 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 29 |
| 4th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−1 Elo- OG Anunoby finger injury−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.