New York Knicks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Julius RandleAssists5
- Julius RandleRebounds9
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints35
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Jrue HolidayRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–114
- Q420.1Derrick White defensive rebound98–114
- Q423.1Miles McBride misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot98–114
- Q432.2Josh Hart defensive rebound98–114
- Q436.0Jaylen Brown misses 26-foot step back jumpshot98–114
- Q455.1Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 298–114
- Q455.1Jericho Sims enters the game for Julius Randle97–114
- Q455.1Payton Pritchard enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis97–114
- Q455.1Knicks offensive team rebound97–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:37Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 67 – 65 BOS · NY 36% → 46% +10NY 36% → 46%+10 pts
- Q34:19Jayson Tatum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)NY 67 – 68 BOS · BOS 54% → 64% +10BOS 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q33:05Quentin Grimes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NY 72 – 72 BOS · NY 29% → 40% +10NY 29% → 40%+10 pts
- Q48:20Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot step back jumpshotNY 88 – 91 BOS · NY 17% → 28% +11NY 17% → 28%+11 pts
- Q47:57Jayson Tatum makes 28-foot step back jumpshotNY 88 – 94 BOS · BOS 72% → 83% +11BOS 72% → 83%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 70%
- Fair odds
- BOS -212
- NY +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.5 – 114.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +75 | NY: Missing RJ Barrett −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +146 Elo | BOS 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 120.25th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.2 | Points allowed | 106.86th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.3 | Margin | +13.41st of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.8 | Defense rating | 104.24th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.023rd of 30 |
| 9th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−5 Elo- RJ Barrett migraine−17 Elo
Celtics
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.