Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints32
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- LaMelo BallRebounds7
Knicks- RJ BarrettPoints24
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists9
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–129
- Q40.0(00:00) [Hornets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)107–129
- Q40.0Amari Bailey makes 21-foot step back jumpshot107–129
- Q43.0Amari Bailey offensive rebound105–129
- Q46.0Nick Smith Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot105–129
- Q416.1Miles McBride makes 26-foot three point jumper (DaQuan Jeffries assists)105–129
- Q433.1Nick Richards makes 1-foot dunk105–126
- Q434.0Nick Richards offensive rebound103–126
- Q435.1Amari Bailey misses 11-foot jumper103–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:09Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 18 – 21 NY · NY 53% → 60% +7NY 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q12:50Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)CHA 22 – 24 NY · NY 51% → 57% +7NY 51% → 57%+7 pts
- Q11:22P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Theo Maledon assists)CHA 25 – 25 NY · CHA 40% → 47% +7CHA 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q29:07Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)CHA 34 – 41 NY · NY 62% → 69% +7NY 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q28:57LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot step back jumpshotCHA 37 – 41 NY · CHA 31% → 38% +7CHA 31% → 38%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2.5
- NY 61%
- Fair odds
- NY -114
- CHA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 112.3 – 113.3 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −8 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +77 Elo | NY 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 107.129th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.4 | Points allowed | 102.82nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.1 | Margin | +4.48th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 107.422nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 103.12nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.9 | Pace | 99.627th of 30 |
| 10th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.