San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Jeremy SochanPoints16
- Keldon JohnsonAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints25
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Julius RandleRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–126
- Q414.1Jericho Sims defensive rebound105–126
- Q416.1Julian Champagnie misses 25-foot three point jumper105–126
- Q418.1Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound105–126
- Q421.0Blake Wesley misses driving layup105–126
- Q426.1Blake Wesley defensive rebound105–126
- Q428.2DaQuan Jeffries misses 25-foot three point jumper105–126
- Q448.2Blake Wesley makes two point shot105–126
- Q450.1Blake Wesley offensive rebound103–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:13RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)SA 0 – 3 NY · NY 53% → 59% +6NY 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q110:17Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)SA 0 – 8 NY · NY 63% → 69% +6NY 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q19:42Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)SA 0 – 11 NY · NY 69% → 74% +5NY 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q16:56RJ Barrett makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Quentin Grimes assists)SA 6 – 18 NY · NY 71% → 76% +5NY 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q12:14Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)SA 12 – 29 NY · NY 81% → 85% +4NY 81% → 85%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2
- NY 59%
- Fair odds
- NY -111
- SA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 112.4 – 113.2 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −31 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +62 Elo | NY 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 52.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 104.429th of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.9 | Points allowed | 102.42nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.3 | Margin | +2.011th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 104.628th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 102.62nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.3 | Pace | 99.826th of 30 |
| 9th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.