Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints29
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jrue HolidayRebounds10
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints20
- Joel EmbiidAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–107
- Q420.1Derrick White defensive rebound117–107
- Q420.1Jrue Holiday blocks Robert Covington 's 24-foot three point jumper117–107
- Q429.1Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2117–107
- Q429.1Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2116–107
- Q429.1Tyrese Maxey personal take foul115–107
- Q435.1Joel Embiid makes two point shot115–107
- Q435.1Joel Embiid offensive rebound115–105
- Q439.1Robert Covington misses 27-foot three point jumper115–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:41De'Anthony Melton makes 25-foot three point shot (Tobias Harris assists)BOS 89 – 88 PHI · PHI 33% → 47% +14PHI 33% → 47%+14 pts
- Q48:18Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)BOS 92 – 88 PHI · BOS 53% → 67% +14BOS 53% → 67%+14 pts
- Q47:08De'Anthony Melton makes 28-foot step back jumpshotBOS 95 – 93 PHI · PHI 26% → 41% +15PHI 26% → 41%+15 pts
- Q46:28Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot step back jumpshotBOS 97 – 96 PHI · PHI 30% → 46% +16PHI 30% → 46%+16 pts
- Q44:38Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 105 – 98 PHI · BOS 74% → 87% +14BOS 74% → 87%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- PHI 51%
- Fair odds
- PHI -121
- BOS +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 113.6 – 115.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +51 | +99 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +6 Elo | PHI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 121.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.9 | Points allowed | 111.711th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+13.7 | Margin | +9.52nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 118.04th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Defense rating | 108.89th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.7 | Pace | 102.511th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 6–15th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.