Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints33
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists15
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints39
- Joel EmbiidAssists6
- Joel EmbiidRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–126
- Q40.2Tyrese Haliburton defensive rebound132–126
- Q45.0Joel Embiid misses 25-foot three point jumper132–126
- Q410.2Bruce Brown makes free throw 2 of 2132–126
- Q410.2Bruce Brown makes free throw 1 of 2131–126
- Q410.2Tyrese Maxey personal take foul130–126
- Q411.2Tyrese Maxey makes 1-foot two point shot130–126
- Q417.1Bruce Brown makes free throw 2 of 2130–124
- Q417.1Bruce Brown makes free throw 1 of 2129–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:07Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot step back jumpshotIND 101 – 101 PHI · PHI 41% → 55% +14PHI 41% → 55%+14 pts
- Q45:17Obi Toppin makes alley oop dunk shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 115 – 111 PHI · IND 58% → 70% +12IND 58% → 70%+12 pts
- Q44:32De'Anthony Melton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)IND 117 – 114 PHI · PHI 18% → 34% +16PHI 18% → 34%+16 pts
- Q43:48Myles Turner makes two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 119 – 116 PHI · IND 54% → 68% +14IND 54% → 68%+14 pts
- Q43:03Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 122 – 116 PHI · IND 71% → 88% +17IND 71% → 88%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 66%
- Fair odds
- PHI -165
- IND +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.0 – 119.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +80 | +104 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +114 Elo | PHI 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30126.0 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.1 | Points allowed | 109.48th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +11.22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.7 | Offense rating | 118.54th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 107.58th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.3 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+104 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.