Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints25
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists17
- Jalen SmithRebounds6
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints50
- Joel EmbiidAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–137
- Q42.1Buddy Hield makes two point shot126–137
- Q43.0Buddy Hield offensive rebound124–137
- Q47.0Myles Turner misses 29-foot three point jumper124–137
- Q48.1shot clock turnover124–137
- Q431.0De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound124–137
- Q433.1Buddy Hield misses two point shot124–137
- Q446.1Tobias Harris makes driving dunk124–137
- Q457.0Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three pointer (Tyrese Haliburton assists)124–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:13Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Joel Embiid assists)IND 85 – 90 PHI · PHI 62% → 72% +9PHI 62% → 72%+9 pts
- Q33:39Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)IND 89 – 95 PHI · PHI 66% → 75% +9PHI 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q31:03Jalen Smith makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 97 – 100 PHI · IND 24% → 34% +10IND 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q49:59Patrick Beverley makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Tobias Harris assists)IND 105 – 109 PHI · PHI 59% → 71% +13PHI 59% → 71%+13 pts
- Q45:20Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot step back jumpshotIND 111 – 119 PHI · PHI 80% → 91% +10PHI 80% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3
- PHI 62%
- Fair odds
- PHI -143
- IND +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 115.3 – 118.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +77 | +86 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +83 Elo | PHI 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30126.0 | Points scored | 118.65th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.6 | Points allowed | 107.47th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +11.32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.2 | Offense rating | 116.45th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 105.35th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.8 | Pace | 101.814th of 30 |
| 10th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.