Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints23
- Marcus SmartAssists5
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints26
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–142
- Q414.1shot clock turnover105–142
- Q437.1Christian Braun defensive rebound105–142
- Q440.0Xavier Tillman misses 24-foot three point jumper105–142
- Q41:00John Konchar defensive rebound105–142
- Q41:05Jalen Pickett misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot105–142
- Q41:18Braxton Key defensive rebound105–142
- Q41:20Xavier Tillman misses free throw 2 of 2105–142
- Q41:20Xavier Tillman makes free throw 1 of 2105–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:40Desmond Bane makes 30-foot running pullup jump shotMEM 8 – 2 DEN · MEM 29% → 35% +6MEM 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q19:20Peyton Watson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)MEM 8 – 5 DEN · DEN 65% → 71% +6DEN 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q17:50Vince Williams Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)MEM 15 – 7 DEN · MEM 34% → 40% +6MEM 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q16:44Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point shot (Jamal Murray assists)MEM 15 – 12 DEN · DEN 64% → 70% +6DEN 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q16:12Jamal Murray makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Peyton Watson assists)MEM 15 – 15 DEN · DEN 70% → 75% +6DEN 70% → 75%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8.5
- DEN 80%
- Fair odds
- DEN -328
- MEM +328 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 105.6 – 114.6 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | +117 | MEM: Missing Ja Morant −26, Santi Aldama −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +240 Elo | DEN 79.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 76.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.3 | Points scored | 115.115th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 110.23rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.1 | Margin | +5.06th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.2 | Offense rating | 116.37th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 111.311th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 98.929th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 12–24th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−15 Elo- Ja Morant illness−26 Elo
- Santi Aldama illness−5 Elo
Nuggets
+117 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.