Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints34
- Ja MorantAssists8
- John KoncharRebounds8
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints34
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–113
- Q40.0(00:00) [Grizzlies] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)115–113
- Q40.0Ja Morant makes driving layup115–113
- Q49.1Santi Aldama enters the game for Xavier Tillman113–113
- Q49.1Trey Murphy III enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas113–113
- Q49.1Naji Marshall enters the game for CJ McCollum113–113
- Q49.1Dyson Daniels enters the game for Zion Williamson113–113
- Q49.1Grizzlies Full timeout113–113
- Q49.1Ja Morant defensive rebound113–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:22Ja Morant makes 6-foot jumperMEM 111 – 109 NO · MEM 44% → 68% +24MEM 44% → 68%+24 pts
- Q41:07Jonas Valanciunas makes two point shotMEM 111 – 111 NO · NO 30% → 56% +26NO 30% → 56%+26 pts
- Q456.0Ja Morant makes driving layupMEM 113 – 111 NO · MEM 45% → 73% +28MEM 45% → 73%+28 pts
- Q451.1Herbert Jones makes driving layup (CJ McCollum assists)MEM 113 – 113 NO · NO 26% → 55% +29NO 26% → 55%+29 pts
- Q40.0Ja Morant makes driving layupMEM 115 – 113 NO · MEM 38% → 100% +62MEM 38% → 100%+62 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -11.5
- NO 87%
- Fair odds
- NO -495
- MEM +495 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 105.7 – 117.9 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | +110 | MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +327 Elo | NO 86.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 82.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 83.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.6 | Points scored | 116.012th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 113.815th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.8 | Margin | +2.111th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.8 | Offense rating | 113.815th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.912th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 9–412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−18 Elo- Derrick Rose left hamstring strain−4 Elo
Pelicans
+110 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.