Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ziaire WilliamsPoints19
- Jacob GilyardAssists7
- Santi AldamaRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Josh GiddeyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–116
- Q415.0GG Jackson makes 1-foot dunk (Ziaire Williams assists)97–116
- Q429.1Grizzlies defensive team rebound95–116
- Q432.1Olivier Sarr misses 27-foot three point jumper95–116
- Q449.1Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound95–116
- Q452.1Ziaire Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper95–116
- Q41:03Jake LaRavia defensive rebound95–116
- Q41:06Vasilije Micic misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot95–116
- Q41:18Jacob Gilyard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)95–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:05Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point shot (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 6 – 0 OKC · MEM 30% → 35% +6MEM 30% → 35%+6 pts
- Q19:27Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jacob Gilyard assists)MEM 12 – 7 OKC · MEM 28% → 34% +6MEM 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q17:38Jacob Gilyard makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMEM 18 – 14 OKC · MEM 27% → 33% +6MEM 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q16:44Jalen Williams makes 23-foot three point shot (Josh Giddey assists)MEM 18 – 17 OKC · OKC 67% → 73% +6OKC 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q29:40Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three pointer (Jalen Williams assists)MEM 34 – 37 OKC · OKC 72% → 78% +6OKC 72% → 78%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9
- OKC 81%
- Fair odds
- OKC -311
- MEM +311 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 109.3 – 118.0 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +105 | MEM: Usual rotation · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +256 Elo | OKC 81.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 75.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 120.45th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 113.614th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.3 | Margin | +6.84th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.3 | Offense rating | 116.57th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 110.08th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.1 | Pace | 102.29th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 8–413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+105 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.