Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints26
- Fred VanVleetAssists8
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds12
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints28
- Desmond BaneAssists3
- Desmond BaneRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–96
- Q41.1Tari Eason defensive rebound103–96
- Q41.1Santi Aldama misses 11-foot two point shot103–96
- Q46.1Grizzlies offensive team rebound103–96
- Q49.1Desmond Bane misses 24-foot three point jumper103–96
- Q411.1Grizzlies Full timeout103–96
- Q411.1Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2103–96
- Q411.1Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2102–96
- Q411.1David Roddy personal foul101–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:33David Roddy makes 6-foot two point shot (Desmond Bane assists)HOU 92 – 91 MEM · MEM 23% → 39% +16MEM 23% → 39%+16 pts
- Q42:14Fred VanVleet makes 3-foot two point shotHOU 94 – 91 MEM · HOU 61% → 78% +17HOU 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q41:51Jaren Jackson Jr. makes two point shotHOU 94 – 93 MEM · MEM 20% → 38% +18MEM 20% → 38%+18 pts
- Q41:34Fred VanVleet makes 21-foot pullup jump shotHOU 96 – 94 MEM · HOU 51% → 73% +22HOU 51% → 73%+22 pts
- Q440.0Dillon Brooks makes 28-foot three pointerHOU 99 – 94 MEM · HOU 82% → 99% +17HOU 82% → 99%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 66%
- Fair odds
- HOU -139
- MEM +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 108.9 – 106.4 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | 0 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +118 Elo | HOU 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 106.430th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Points allowed | 112.711th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.2 | Margin | −6.324th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 104.730th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.9 | Defense rating | 110.910th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.216th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 1–1029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–0 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.