San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints15
- Malaki BranhamAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds18
Rockets- Tari EasonPoints18
- Fred VanVleetAssists5
- Tari EasonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game82–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter82–93
- Q418.0Fred VanVleet defensive rebound82–93
- Q419.0Jabari Smith Jr. blocks Jeremy Sochan 's 3-foot two point shot82–93
- Q426.1Tari Eason makes 1-foot dunk (Dillon Brooks assists)82–93
- Q436.1Tari Eason defensive rebound82–91
- Q438.1Keldon Johnson misses 23-foot three point jumper82–91
- Q440.1Devin Vassell offensive rebound82–91
- Q442.1Jeremy Sochan misses driving layup82–91
- Q446.1Jabari Smith Jr. bad pass (Jeremy Sochan steals)82–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:29Alperen Sengun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)SA 53 – 56 HOU · HOU 65% → 73% +8HOU 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q411:46Doug McDermott makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 65 – 69 HOU · SA 15% → 24% +9SA 15% → 24%+9 pts
- Q410:09Tari Eason makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)SA 65 – 72 HOU · HOU 76% → 85% +9HOU 76% → 85%+9 pts
- Q47:38Tari Eason makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jeff Green assists)SA 70 – 77 HOU · HOU 77% → 87% +10HOU 77% → 87%+10 pts
- Q43:32Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three pointerSA 77 – 84 HOU · HOU 82% → 93% +11HOU 82% → 93%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9
- HOU 81%
- Fair odds
- HOU -252
- SA +252 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 109.4 – 116.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1378 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +23 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +251 Elo | HOU 80.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 110.326th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 106.82nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.0 | Margin | +3.48th of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.7 | Offense rating | 111.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 107.73rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 98.528th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 9–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.