Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints26
- Jalen GreenAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds7
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists15
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–134
- Q48.1Braxton Key defensive rebound124–134
- Q410.1Cam Whitmore misses free throw 2 of 2124–134
- Q410.1Cam Whitmore makes free throw 1 of 2124–134
- Q410.1Hunter Tyson personal foul123–134
- Q412.1Nate Hinton offensive rebound123–134
- Q416.1Cam Whitmore misses 26-foot step back jumpshot123–134
- Q421.2Jermaine Samuels Jr. defensive rebound123–134
- Q424.0Braxton Key misses free throw 2 of 2123–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:24Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)HOU 0 – 3 DEN · DEN 69% → 75% +5DEN 69% → 75%+5 pts
- Q19:51Jalen Green makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 3 – 5 DEN · HOU 22% → 27% +5HOU 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q19:25Jamal Murray makes 37-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)HOU 3 – 8 DEN · DEN 73% → 78% +5DEN 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q18:41Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)HOU 5 – 11 DEN · DEN 74% → 79% +5DEN 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q29:30Reggie Bullock Jr. makes 23-foot step back jumpshotHOU 36 – 44 DEN · HOU 13% → 18% +4HOU 13% → 18%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 65%
- Fair odds
- DEN -228
- HOU +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 106.8 – 113.1 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +23 | +112 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +109 Elo | DEN 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 69.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 113.115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.5 | Points allowed | 108.97th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 114.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.4 | Defense rating | 110.09th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–6 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+112 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–0 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.