Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints38
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds19
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints25
- Fred VanVleetAssists11
- Alperen SengunRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–105
- Q41.0Rockets offensive team rebound86–105
- Q41.1Alperen Sengun misses 46-foot three point jumper86–105
- Q43.0Nikola Jokic out of bounds lost ball turnover86–105
- Q416.0Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point shot86–105
- Q434.1Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound86–102
- Q435.1Nikola Jokic misses 25-foot three point jumper86–102
- Q441.1Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three pointer86–102
- Q457.1Alperen Sengun defensive rebound86–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:21Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)DEN 5 – 11 HOU · HOU 50% → 57% +6HOU 50% → 57%+6 pts
- Q14:51Michael Porter Jr. makes 22-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 12 – 13 HOU · DEN 47% → 53% +7DEN 47% → 53%+7 pts
- Q12:01Aaron Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)DEN 19 – 24 HOU · HOU 49% → 56% +7HOU 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q113.0Jalen Green makes 26-foot step back jumpshotDEN 19 – 29 HOU · HOU 61% → 68% +7HOU 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q49:00Justin Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 75 – 84 HOU · DEN 8% → 16% +7DEN 8% → 16%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -0.5
- DEN 52%
- Fair odds
- DEN -128
- HOU +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 111.5 – 109.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +125 | +35 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +16 Elo | DEN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 110.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.8 | Points allowed | 105.82nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 111.118th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 106.83rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 7–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+125 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.