Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints24
- Fred VanVleetAssists16
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints37
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–105
- Q40.0Rockets offensive team rebound104–105
- Q41.1Dillon Brooks misses 35-foot three point jumper104–105
- Q41.2LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2104–105
- Q41.2Jalen Green enters the game for Tari Eason104–104
- Q41.2Alperen Sengun enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate104–104
- Q41.2Lakers offensive team rebound104–104
- Q41.2LeBron James misses free throw 1 of 2104–104
- Q41.2Tari Eason shooting foul104–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:35Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 98 – 98 LAL · HOU 20% → 50% +31HOU 20% → 50%+31 pts
- Q41:08Alperen Sengun makes driving layup (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 100 – 100 LAL · HOU 25% → 50% +25HOU 25% → 50%+25 pts
- Q424.0Austin Reaves makes 31-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)HOU 100 – 103 LAL · LAL 50% → 96% +46LAL 50% → 96%+46 pts
- Q44.0Alperen Sengun makes driving layup (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 104 – 104 LAL · HOU <1% → 50% +50HOU <1% → 50%+50 pts
- Q41.2LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2HOU 104 – 105 LAL · LAL 50% → >99% +49LAL 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -107
- LAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 112.1 – 111.6 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | −29 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Missing Jarred Vanderbilt −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +22 Elo | HOU 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 112.418th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.8 | Points allowed | 114.318th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −1.921st of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 108.722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.5 | Defense rating | 110.512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 101.813th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 5–16th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−29 Elo- Jarred Vanderbilt left heel−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.