Houston Rockets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints23
- Fred VanVleetAssists10
- Alperen SengunRebounds8
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints26
- James HardenAssists7
- James HardenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–104
- Q40.0Aaron Holiday enters the game for Dillon Brooks100–106
- Q40.0Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 2 of 2100–106
- Q40.0Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 2100–105
- Q40.0Dillon Brooks personal take foul100–104
- Q40.0(00:00.2) [Rockets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)100–104
- Q41.1Kawhi Leonard defensive rebound100–104
- Q43.1Fred VanVleet misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot100–104
- Q46.0Jalen Green enters the game for Jeff Green100–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:57Jabari Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 97 – 94 LAC · HOU 51% → 74% +23HOU 51% → 74%+23 pts
- Q41:07Paul George makes two point shotHOU 99 – 98 LAC · LAC 15% → 36% +21LAC 15% → 36%+21 pts
- Q440.1Ivica Zubac makes dunk (James Harden assists)HOU 99 – 100 LAC · LAC 33% → 67% +34LAC 33% → 67%+34 pts
- Q429.0Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2HOU 100 – 100 LAC · HOU 30% → 50% +20HOU 30% → 50%+20 pts
- Q46.0James Harden makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)HOU 100 – 103 LAC · LAC 50% → >99% +50LAC 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- HOU 55%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- LAC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.9 – 111.3 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +24 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +33 Elo | HOU 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.0 | Points scored | 113.215th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.8 | Points allowed | 111.713th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 111.415th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 109.910th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 100.719th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 3–110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.