Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints24
- John KoncharAssists6
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds8
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints24
- Austin ReavesAssists7
- Austin ReavesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–134
- Q415.0shot clock turnover107–134
- Q439.0Xavier Tillman out of bounds bad pass turnover107–134
- Q448.0Jaxson Hayes personal foul107–134
- Q453.1Xavier Tillman defensive rebound107–134
- Q456.0Rui Hachimura misses 15-foot pullup jump shot107–134
- Q41:05Christian Wood defensive rebound107–134
- Q41:05John Konchar misses 26-foot three point jumper107–134
- Q41:17Rui Hachimura makes 19-foot pullup jump shot107–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:21Desmond Bane makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bismack Biyombo assists)MEM 9 – 9 LAL · MEM 42% → 48% +6MEM 42% → 48%+6 pts
- Q18:05LeBron James makes 27-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)MEM 9 – 12 LAL · LAL 52% → 58% +6LAL 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q15:22Desmond Bane makes 26-foot step back jumpshotMEM 16 – 18 LAL · MEM 37% → 44% +7MEM 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q14:44Santi Aldama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)MEM 19 – 21 LAL · MEM 37% → 44% +7MEM 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q14:20Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three pointerMEM 19 – 24 LAL · LAL 56% → 63% +7LAL 56% → 63%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- LAL 54%
- Fair odds
- LAL -109
- MEM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 112.8 – 113.5 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −64 | MEM: Usual rotation · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +27 Elo | LAL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 52.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.6 | Points scored | 111.019th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 115.922nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.5 | Margin | −4.924th of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.1 | Offense rating | 107.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 111.818th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 14th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.