Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints29
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- Austin ReavesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–110
- Q411.1Kessler Edwards enters the game for Harrison Barnes125–110
- Q411.1Jalen Slawson enters the game for Domantas Sabonis125–110
- Q411.1Filip Petrusev enters the game for Kevin Huerter125–110
- Q411.1Keon Ellis enters the game for De'Aaron Fox125–110
- Q411.1shot clock turnover125–110
- Q433.0Keegan Murray defensive rebound125–110
- Q436.0Max Christie misses 13-foot pullup jump shot125–110
- Q445.2Harrison Barnes makes 1-foot dunk125–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:58Harrison Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 14 – 8 LAL · SAC 64% → 70% +6SAC 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q210:41Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)SAC 38 – 32 LAL · LAL 23% → 29% +6LAL 23% → 29%+6 pts
- Q29:44LeBron James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)SAC 42 – 35 LAL · LAL 21% → 27% +6LAL 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q25:30De'Aaron Fox makes 27-foot three pointerSAC 54 – 45 LAL · SAC 71% → 78% +6SAC 71% → 78%+6 pts
- Q238.1Kevin Huerter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)SAC 68 – 56 LAL · SAC 79% → 85% +6SAC 79% → 85%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1.5
- SAC 57%
- Fair odds
- SAC -140
- LAL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 115.6 – 113.0 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +33 | −39 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +46 Elo | SAC 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 113.116th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 115.119th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.019th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 109.120th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 111.015th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.4 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 1–0 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.