Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints35
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints24
- Skylar MaysAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–95
- Q422.0Max Christie defensive rebound107–95
- Q424.1Duop Reath misses 24-foot three point jumper107–95
- Q435.1Max Christie bad pass (Kris Murray steals)107–95
- Q446.2Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound107–95
- Q449.1Kris Murray misses 26-foot three point jumper107–95
- Q457.0Duop Reath defensive rebound107–95
- Q41:00Max Christie misses driving layup107–95
- Q41:11Rui Hachimura enters the game for LeBron James107–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:09Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point shot (Skylar Mays assists)LAL 63 – 59 POR · POR 30% → 38% +8POR 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q37:46Skylar Mays makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)LAL 68 – 67 POR · POR 37% → 47% +9POR 37% → 47%+9 pts
- Q35:28LeBron James makes 29-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 73 – 67 POR · LAL 60% → 70% +10LAL 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q34:35LeBron James makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cam Reddish assists)LAL 76 – 69 POR · LAL 64% → 73% +9LAL 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q359.1Skylar Mays makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)LAL 82 – 75 POR · POR 16% → 24% +8POR 16% → 24%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- POR 46%
- Fair odds
- POR -100
- LAL +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 112.4 – 112.4 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | −36 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Ish Wainright −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +27 Elo | LAL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 104.730th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 111.713th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.1 | Margin | −7.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 102.230th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 109.09th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.2 | Pace | 100.521st of 30 |
| 14th of 295–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 29 |
| 25th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−36 Elo- Ish Wainright left knee soreness−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–0 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.