Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints30
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints27
- Joe InglesAssists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–124
- Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound119–124
- Q40.0Aaron Gordon misses 68-foot three point jumper119–124
- Q42.0Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2119–124
- Q42.0Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2119–123
- Q42.0Nikola Jokic personal take foul119–122
- Q42.2Aaron Gordon bad pass (Franz Wagner steals)119–122
- Q44.1Jalen Suggs makes free throw 2 of 2119–122
- Q44.1Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 2119–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:22Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 111 – 112 ORL · DEN 24% → 45% +21DEN 24% → 45%+21 pts
- Q42:31Franz Wagner makes driving layupDEN 113 – 114 ORL · ORL 39% → 56% +18ORL 39% → 56%+18 pts
- Q42:09Nikola Jokic makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotDEN 115 – 115 ORL · DEN 33% → 52% +19DEN 33% → 52%+19 pts
- Q41:49Paolo Banchero makes 27-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)DEN 115 – 118 ORL · ORL 48% → 77% +29ORL 48% → 77%+29 pts
- Q419.0Nikola Jokic makes tip shotDEN 117 – 118 ORL · DEN 3% → 27% +24DEN 3% → 27%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 57%
- Fair odds
- DEN -156
- ORL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 112.0 – 108.6 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +132 | +37 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +51 Elo | DEN 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 110.621st of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 106.64th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.5 | Margin | +3.97th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 108.224th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 104.41st of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 102.211th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 17th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+132 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.