Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints21
- Cole AnthonyAssists7
- Jonathan IsaacRebounds9
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints34
- Nikola VucevicAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–97
- Q41.2Gary Harris defensive rebound103–97
- Q41.2Zach LaVine misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot103–97
- Q47.0Gary Harris makes free throw 2 of 2103–97
- Q47.0Gary Harris makes free throw 1 of 2102–97
- Q47.0Zach LaVine personal foul101–97
- Q47.0Gary Harris defensive rebound101–97
- Q47.0Gary Harris blocks Zach LaVine 's 25-foot three point jumper101–97
- Q412.0Bulls Full timeout101–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:13Gary Harris makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 92 – 90 CHI · ORL 41% → 65% +24ORL 41% → 65%+24 pts
- Q42:58Zach LaVine makes 10-foot two point shotORL 92 – 92 CHI · CHI 34% → 51% +16CHI 34% → 51%+16 pts
- Q42:39Franz Wagner makes 1-foot layup (Jonathan Isaac assists)ORL 94 – 92 CHI · ORL 49% → 67% +17ORL 49% → 67%+17 pts
- Q426.0Alex Caruso makes 27-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)ORL 96 – 97 CHI · CHI 14% → 71% +57CHI 14% → 71%+57 pts
- Q420.1Franz Wagner makes driving layupORL 98 – 97 CHI · ORL 26% → 73% +47ORL 26% → 73%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- CHI 51%
- Fair odds
- CHI -111
- ORL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.7 – 110.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +7 | ORL: Usual rotation · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +8 Elo | CHI 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 108.526th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.6 | Points allowed | 112.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −3.822nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 108.324th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.2 | Defense rating | 112.119th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 14th of 295–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 29 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.