Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints21
- Franz WagnerAssists5
- Franz WagnerRebounds8
Nets- Spencer DinwiddiePoints29
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists9
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–124
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound104–124
- Q40.0Jett Howard misses running pullup jump shot104–124
- Q43.2Mikal Bridges makes two point shot104–124
- Q46.1Anthony Black bad pass (Mikal Bridges steals)104–122
- Q411.1shot clock turnover104–122
- Q435.1Cameron Johnson defensive rebound104–122
- Q439.0Jett Howard misses 25-foot three point jumper104–122
- Q448.1Moritz Wagner defensive rebound104–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:29Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 77 – 73 BKN · ORL 52% → 62% +10ORL 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q33:33Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point shot (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)ORL 79 – 78 BKN · BKN 38% → 48% +11BKN 38% → 48%+11 pts
- Q32:36Cole Anthony makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joe Ingles assists)ORL 82 – 80 BKN · ORL 44% → 56% +11ORL 44% → 56%+11 pts
- Q410:42Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 89 – 91 BKN · ORL 28% → 40% +12ORL 28% → 40%+12 pts
- Q410:15Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three pointerORL 89 – 94 BKN · BKN 60% → 73% +12BKN 60% → 73%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -0.5
- BKN 52%
- Fair odds
- BKN -114
- ORL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.0 – 112.0 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | +3 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +15 Elo | BKN 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.1 | Points scored | 113.215th of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.1 | Points allowed | 113.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 24th of 30107.5 | Offense rating | 111.611th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Defense rating | 111.717th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.6 | Pace | 101.418th of 30 |
| 10th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+3 Elo- Cam Thomas left ankle sprain−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.