Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints17
- Jalen SuggsAssists5
- Goga BitadzeRebounds11
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints19
- Zach LaVineAssists3
- Andre DrummondRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–94
- Q41.1Paolo Banchero makes 7-foot two point shot96–94
- Q47.1Joe Ingles enters the game for Anthony Black94–94
- Q47.1Torrey Craig enters the game for Coby White94–94
- Q47.1Magic Full timeout94–94
- Q47.2Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)94–94
- Q412.1Bulls Full timeout94–91
- Q412.1Alex Caruso defensive rebound94–91
- Q414.0Anthony Black misses free throw 2 of 294–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:16Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point jumperORL 84 – 78 CHI · CHI 9% → 20% +10CHI 9% → 20%+10 pts
- Q42:08Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 92 – 84 CHI · ORL 88% → 97% +9ORL 88% → 97%+9 pts
- Q417.1Zach LaVine makes 28-foot three point jumperORL 93 – 91 CHI · CHI <1% → 9% +9CHI <1% → 9%+9 pts
- Q47.2Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)ORL 94 – 94 CHI · CHI <1% → 51% +50CHI <1% → 51%+50 pts
- Q41.1Paolo Banchero makes 7-foot two point shotORL 96 – 94 CHI · ORL 50% → >99% +50ORL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 59%
- Fair odds
- CHI -153
- ORL +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.8 – 113.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +2 | +10 | ORL: Usual rotation · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +65 Elo | CHI 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 60.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.5 | Points scored | 109.824th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 113.716th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −3.922nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.5 | Offense rating | 109.319th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.0 | Defense rating | 113.222nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.9 | Pace | 98.727th of 30 |
| 15th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.