Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Dennis SchroderPoints24
- Pascal SiakamAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds10
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints25
- Cole AnthonyAssists10
- Goga BitadzeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–126
- Q40.0Raptors offensive team rebound107–126
- Q40.0Gradey Dick misses 25-foot three point jumper107–126
- Q410.0Chuma Okeke makes 23-foot step back jumpshot107–126
- Q426.0Garrett Temple makes driving layup107–123
- Q434.0Cole Anthony out of bounds bad pass turnover105–123
- Q447.0Otto Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Garrett Temple assists)105–123
- Q454.1Otto Porter Jr. defensive rebound102–123
- Q457.0Anthony Black misses free throw 2 of 2102–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:10Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)TOR 4 – 7 ORL · ORL 56% → 63% +6ORL 56% → 63%+6 pts
- Q19:55Franz Wagner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)TOR 4 – 10 ORL · ORL 63% → 68% +6ORL 63% → 68%+6 pts
- Q19:40Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three pointer (O.G. Anunoby assists)TOR 7 – 10 ORL · TOR 32% → 37% +6TOR 32% → 37%+6 pts
- Q12:07Joe Ingles makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)TOR 18 – 26 ORL · ORL 67% → 73% +6ORL 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q11:01Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Pascal Siakam assists)TOR 23 – 28 ORL · TOR 27% → 33% +6TOR 27% → 33%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2
- ORL 59%
- Fair odds
- ORL -130
- TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 109.3 – 111.3 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +20 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +61 Elo | ORL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.8 | Points scored | 109.427th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 106.64th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.810th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 107.227th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 104.51st of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.011th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.