Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints24
- Joe InglesAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds8
Pacers- Jordan NworaPoints19
- T.J. McConnellAssists5
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–116
- Q422.0Ben Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)128–116
- Q428.1Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2128–113
- Q428.1Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2127–113
- Q428.1T.J. McConnell enters the game for Bennedict Mathurin126–113
- Q428.1Bennedict Mathurin loose ball foul126–113
- Q428.1Magic defensive team rebound126–113
- Q429.0Ben Sheppard misses 10-foot two point shot126–113
- Q433.1Double technical foul: Admiral Schofield and Isaiah Jackson126–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:11Jalen Suggs makes 28-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)ORL 9 – 0 IND · ORL 44% → 50% +6ORL 44% → 50%+6 pts
- Q18:09Bennedict Mathurin makes 27-foot three pointer (Obi Toppin assists)ORL 13 – 5 IND · IND 45% → 51% +6IND 45% → 51%+6 pts
- Q17:18Buddy Hield makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)ORL 14 – 8 IND · IND 49% → 55% +7IND 49% → 55%+7 pts
- Q12:45Gary Harris makes 22-foot three point shot (Joe Ingles assists)ORL 30 – 13 IND · ORL 64% → 71% +6ORL 64% → 71%+6 pts
- Q12:19Gary Harris makes 28-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)ORL 33 – 14 IND · ORL 69% → 75% +6ORL 69% → 75%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 69%
- Fair odds
- IND -221
- ORL +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 112.1 – 118.1 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +92 | ORL: Usual rotation · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +138 Elo | IND 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 126.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.8 | Points allowed | 123.429th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +3.29th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 119.71st of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.7 | Defense rating | 116.726th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.1 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 9th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 5–213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+92 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.