Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints23
- Desmond BaneAssists4
- John KoncharRebounds11
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints34
- Jalen GreenAssists4
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–111
- Q41.1shot clock turnover91–111
- Q425.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. makes free throw 1 of 191–111
- Q425.1Nate Williams shooting foul90–111
- Q425.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. makes 5-foot two point shot90–111
- Q436.1Vince Williams Jr. defensive rebound88–111
- Q437.1Reggie Bullock Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper88–111
- Q457.1Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound88–111
- Q457.1GG Jackson misses tip shot88–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:57Desmond Bane makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jacob Gilyard assists)MEM 57 – 50 HOU · MEM 57% → 66% +9MEM 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q38:11Jalen Green makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Alperen Sengun assists)MEM 57 – 56 HOU · HOU 43% → 52% +10HOU 43% → 52%+10 pts
- Q34:09Fred VanVleet makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jae'Sean Tate assists)MEM 63 – 65 HOU · HOU 51% → 62% +11HOU 51% → 62%+11 pts
- Q32:20Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)MEM 65 – 69 HOU · HOU 58% → 69% +11HOU 58% → 69%+11 pts
- Q331.2Jalen Green makes 24-foot step back jumpshotMEM 67 – 72 HOU · HOU 62% → 73% +11HOU 62% → 73%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3.5
- HOU 64%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- MEM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 109.6 – 112.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +33 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +97 Elo | HOU 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 109.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 107.03rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.5 | Margin | +2.910th of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 111.018th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 108.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.4 | Pace | 98.128th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 6–15th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.