Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points27
- Ziaire WilliamsAssists5
- Santi AldamaRebounds10
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints22
- Zach CollinsAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–108
- Q418.1Grizzlies defensive team rebound120–108
- Q421.1Keldon Johnson misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot120–108
- Q425.1Desmond Bane makes driving layup120–108
- Q448.0Victor Wembanyama bad pass (Ziaire Williams steals)118–108
- Q456.0Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2118–108
- Q456.0Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2117–108
- Q456.0Tre Jones enters the game for Zach Collins116–108
- Q456.0Zach Collins shooting foul116–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:03Derrick Rose makes 26-foot three pointerMEM 87 – 94 SA · MEM 18% → 27% +9MEM 18% → 27%+9 pts
- Q410:01Zach Collins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Doug McDermott assists)MEM 93 – 99 SA · SA 61% → 73% +12SA 61% → 73%+12 pts
- Q48:48Bismack Biyombo makes layupMEM 100 – 99 SA · MEM 48% → 57% +10MEM 48% → 57%+10 pts
- Q48:42Desmond Bane makes two point shotMEM 102 – 99 SA · MEM 57% → 67% +9MEM 57% → 67%+9 pts
- Q48:12Santi Aldama makes 8-foot two point shot (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 104 – 99 SA · MEM 67% → 76% +9MEM 67% → 76%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2
- MEM 58%
- Fair odds
- MEM -127
- SA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 116.0 – 114.2 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | −43 | MEM: Usual rotation · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +57 Elo | MEM 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30108.5 | Points scored | 111.420th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 124.530th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.5 | Margin | −13.130th of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.1 | Offense rating | 105.228th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 117.528th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.2 | Pace | 104.23rd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–4 | Road vs home | 1–526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.