Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints43
- Malik MonkAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Spurs- Zach CollinsPoints28
- Keldon JohnsonAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–120
- Q40.0(00:00) [Kings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)129–120
- Q40.0Kevin Huerter makes layup (De'Aaron Fox assists)129–120
- Q43.1Victor Wembanyama makes two point shot127–120
- Q48.1Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound127–118
- Q411.1Harrison Barnes misses 23-foot three point jumper127–118
- Q413.1De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound127–118
- Q419.1Jeremy Sochan misses 25-foot three point jumper127–118
- Q429.0De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2127–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:41De'Aaron Fox makes 24-foot step back jumpshotSAC 98 – 98 SA · SAC 42% → 55% +13SAC 42% → 55%+13 pts
- Q49:44Malik Monk makes 23-foot three point jumperSAC 103 – 100 SA · SAC 55% → 68% +13SAC 55% → 68%+13 pts
- Q48:01Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Zach Collins assists)SAC 107 – 105 SA · SA 23% → 36% +13SA 23% → 36%+13 pts
- Q47:15De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 110 – 107 SA · SAC 54% → 69% +15SAC 54% → 69%+15 pts
- Q47:00Keldon Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)SAC 110 – 110 SA · SA 31% → 46% +16SA 31% → 46%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -4
- SAC 66%
- Fair odds
- SAC -150
- SA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 117.0 – 113.9 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | −47 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +114 Elo | SAC 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 110.622nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 124.130th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −13.530th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 104.628th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 117.329th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.1 | Pace | 103.93rd of 30 |
| 17th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 1–425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.