Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Duncan RobinsonPoints26
- Bam AdebayoAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints20
- Victor WembanyamaAssists7
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–113
- Q45.1Heat defensive team rebound118–113
- Q46.1Keldon Johnson misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot118–113
- Q413.0Josh Richardson makes free throw 2 of 2118–113
- Q413.0Josh Richardson makes free throw 1 of 2117–113
- Q413.0Jeremy Sochan personal take foul116–113
- Q425.1Keldon Johnson makes 25-foot three pointer116–113
- Q431.1Jimmy Butler makes free throw 2 of 2116–110
- Q431.1Jimmy Butler makes free throw 1 of 2115–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:29Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three pointer (Doug McDermott assists)MIA 105 – 106 SA · SA 35% → 58% +23SA 35% → 58%+23 pts
- Q43:14Jimmy Butler makes 11-foot two point shot (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 107 – 106 SA · MIA 42% → 57% +16MIA 42% → 57%+16 pts
- Q42:18Jeremy Sochan makes 1-foot two point shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)MIA 109 – 110 SA · SA 41% → 60% +19SA 41% → 60%+19 pts
- Q41:58Josh Richardson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 112 – 110 SA · MIA 39% → 69% +30MIA 39% → 69%+30 pts
- Q41:24Josh Richardson makes 16-foot two point shot (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 114 – 110 SA · MIA 73% → 89% +16MIA 73% → 89%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- SA 47%
- Fair odds
- SA -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 113.8 – 114.5 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +15 | −25 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +18 Elo | MIA 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 52.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.6 | Points scored | 113.016th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 124.930th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −11.930th of 30 |
| 20th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 106.326th of 30 |
| 13th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 117.528th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.7 | Pace | 103.96th of 30 |
| 13th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 1–325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.