Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints29
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints29
- Jeremy SochanAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–110
- Q420.0Tre Jones lost ball turnover (Anthony Edwards steals)117–110
- Q425.2Mike Conley makes free throw 2 of 2117–110
- Q425.2Mike Conley makes free throw 1 of 2116–110
- Q425.2Victor Wembanyama personal take foul115–110
- Q433.1Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three pointer (Devin Vassell assists)115–110
- Q444.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2115–107
- Q444.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2114–107
- Q444.1Victor Wembanyama personal foul113–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:04Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 45 – 46 SA · MIN 48% → 56% +8MIN 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q252.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 53 – 50 SA · MIN 58% → 66% +8MIN 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q230.1Victor Wembanyama makes 30-foot three pointerMIN 53 – 53 SA · SA 34% → 42% +8SA 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q27.1Mike Conley makes three pointer (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 56 – 53 SA · MIN 58% → 66% +8MIN 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q311:02Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three pointerMIN 58 – 57 SA · SA 31% → 39% +8SA 31% → 39%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 70%
- Fair odds
- MIN -159
- SA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 115.6 – 112.1 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +70 | −17 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +147 Elo | MIN 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 113.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.1 | Points allowed | 125.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.6 | Margin | −12.530th of 30 |
| 17th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 106.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 3098.8 | Defense rating | 118.430th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.8 | Pace | 103.77th of 30 |
| 26th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.