San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Zach CollinsPoints13
- Devonte' GrahamAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints28
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Josh GiddeyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–123
- Q418.1shot clock turnover87–123
- Q442.1Julian Champagnie bad pass (Aaron Wiggins steals)87–123
- Q446.1Tre Mann bad pass (Julian Champagnie steals)87–123
- Q41:03Charles Bassey makes two point shot87–123
- Q41:03Charles Bassey offensive rebound85–123
- Q41:06Julian Champagnie misses 14-foot pullup jump shot85–123
- Q41:19Aaron Wiggins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)85–123
- Q41:39Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper85–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:15Jeremy Sochan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 9 – 5 OKC · SA 34% → 40% +6SA 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q15:21Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)SA 15 – 16 OKC · OKC 64% → 70% +6OKC 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q15:05Cedi Osman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 18 – 16 OKC · SA 30% → 36% +6SA 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q24:52Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)SA 39 – 44 OKC · OKC 70% → 76% +7OKC 70% → 76%+7 pts
- Q23:57Devin Vassell makes 25-foot step back jumpshotSA 44 – 44 OKC · SA 28% → 35% +7SA 28% → 35%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6.5
- OKC 75%
- Fair odds
- OKC -223
- SA +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 113.1 – 119.2 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +67 | SA: Missing Sandro Mamukelashvili −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +187 Elo | OKC 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 69.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 115.96th of 30 |
| 30th of 30124.2 | Points allowed | 114.117th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.2 | Margin | +1.813th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 112.38th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 110.615th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 15th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−17 Elo- Sandro Mamukelashvili back stiffness−1 Elo
Thunder
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.