Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds7
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints28
- Bradley BealAssists5
- Kevin DurantRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–99
- Q45.0shot clock turnover111–99
- Q429.1Thunder defensive team rebound111–99
- Q431.1Chimezie Metu misses 25-foot three point jumper111–99
- Q439.2Josh Okogie enters the game for Kevin Durant111–99
- Q439.2Drew Eubanks enters the game for Keita Bates-Diop111–99
- Q439.2Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Grayson Allen111–99
- Q439.2Chimezie Metu enters the game for Bradley Beal111–99
- Q439.2Suns Full timeout111–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:04Chet Holmgren makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 83 – 86 PHX · OKC 24% → 36% +11OKC 24% → 36%+11 pts
- Q410:42Kevin Durant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)OKC 83 – 89 PHX · PHX 64% → 76% +11PHX 64% → 76%+11 pts
- Q46:55Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point shotOKC 94 – 91 PHX · OKC 54% → 65% +11OKC 54% → 65%+11 pts
- Q46:42Bradley Beal makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotOKC 94 – 93 PHX · PHX 35% → 46% +11PHX 35% → 46%+11 pts
- Q45:21Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 96 – 95 PHX · OKC 43% → 55% +12OKC 43% → 55%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -0.5
- PHX 53%
- Fair odds
- PHX -114
- OKC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 114.0 – 115.0 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | +40 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +19 Elo | PHX 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 113.214th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 112.214th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.013th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 110.016th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 109.112th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.9 | Pace | 101.420th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.