Boston Celtics at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints26
- Jayson TatumAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds9
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints30
- Desmond BaneAssists8
- Santi AldamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–100
- Q40.0Grizzlies offensive team rebound102–100
- Q40.0Kristaps Porzingis blocks Ziaire Williams 's 18-foot two point shot102–100
- Q40.1Ziaire Williams offensive rebound102–100
- Q44.0Santi Aldama misses 25-foot three point jumper102–100
- Q47.1Ziaire Williams defensive rebound102–100
- Q49.1Jrue Holiday misses dunk102–100
- Q414.1Derrick White offensive rebound102–100
- Q417.1Jayson Tatum misses 21-foot two point shot102–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:01Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jacob Gilyard assists)BOS 84 – 86 MEM · MEM 36% → 50% +14MEM 36% → 50%+14 pts
- Q47:28Jayson Tatum makes 24-foot three pointerBOS 89 – 86 MEM · BOS 58% → 73% +14BOS 58% → 73%+14 pts
- Q43:05Ziaire Williams makes dunkBOS 98 – 97 MEM · MEM 23% → 37% +14MEM 23% → 37%+14 pts
- Q41:48Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)BOS 98 – 100 MEM · MEM 36% → 67% +31MEM 36% → 67%+31 pts
- Q41:01Kristaps Porzingis makes dunk (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 102 – 100 MEM · BOS 53% → 79% +26BOS 53% → 79%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8
- BOS 79%
- Fair odds
- BOS -235
- MEM +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 115.9 – 109.4 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +88 | +15 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +229 Elo | BOS 78.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 70.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 109.427th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.9 | Points allowed | 115.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.5 | Margin | −5.825th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 105.429th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.7 | Defense rating | 111.018th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.2 | Pace | 102.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 0–530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+88 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.