Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints30
- Fred VanVleetAssists14
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints32
- Chris PaulAssists12
- Andrew WigginsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–121
- Q42.0Alperen Sengun makes two point shot116–121
- Q410.1Rockets Full timeout114–121
- Q410.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2114–121
- Q410.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2114–120
- Q410.1Aaron Holiday personal foul114–119
- Q413.1Jabari Smith Jr. makes 3-foot dunk (Aaron Holiday assists)114–119
- Q421.0Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2112–119
- Q421.0Kevon Looney enters the game for Dario Saric112–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:42Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)HOU 39 – 44 GS · GS 60% → 67% +7GS 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q26:23Jae'Sean Tate makes three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 42 – 44 GS · HOU 33% → 40% +7HOU 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q26:04Andrew Wiggins makes three pointer (Kevon Looney assists)HOU 42 – 47 GS · GS 60% → 67% +7GS 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q23:23Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 49 – 53 GS · HOU 28% → 35% +7HOU 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q310:42Alperen Sengun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 58 – 63 GS · HOU 24% → 32% +8HOU 24% → 32%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1
- GS 55%
- Fair odds
- GS -125
- HOU +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.8 – 112.5 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −8 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Draymond Green −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +33 Elo | GS 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 55.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.4 | Points scored | 113.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.7 | Points allowed | 113.415th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 110.917th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.2 | Defense rating | 110.915th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.5 | Pace | 101.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 1–627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−8 Elo- Draymond Green suspended by league−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.