Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints40
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints31
- Chris PaulAssists11
- Kevon LooneyRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game130–123
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime130–123
- OT6.1shot clock turnover130–123
- OT28.1Jalen Williams defensive rebound130–123
- OT30.1Andrew Wiggins misses 6-foot two point shot130–123
- OT35.0Warriors Full timeout130–123
- OT35.0Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2130–123
- OT35.0Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Joe129–123
- OT35.0Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 2129–123
- OT35.0Chris Paul personal take foul128–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:54Chris Paul makes 22-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)OKC 110 – 111 GS · GS 31% → 56% +25GS 31% → 56%+25 pts
- Q41:58Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)OKC 112 – 114 GS · GS 38% → 68% +30GS 38% → 68%+30 pts
- Q43.0Andrew Wiggins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)OKC 114 – 117 GS · GS 50% → >99% +50GS 50% → >99%+50 pts
- Q40.1Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point shot (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 117 – 117 GS · OKC 0% → 50% +50OKC 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:35Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)OKC 124 – 123 GS · GS 12% → 37% +25GS 12% → 37%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 63%
- Fair odds
- OKC -158
- GS +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 115.5 – 112.0 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +93 | −10 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Draymond Green −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +94 Elo | OKC 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 112.616th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 112.114th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.1 | Margin | +0.517th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 110.716th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 110.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 304–1 | Road vs home | 1–526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+93 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−10 Elo- Draymond Green suspended by league−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–1 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.