Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints33
- Mike ConleyAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints23
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists5
- Kevon LooneyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–101
- Q41.0Kyle Anderson bad pass (Chris Paul steals)104–101
- Q41.0Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Rudy Gobert104–101
- Q41.0Gary Payton II enters the game for Moses Moody104–101
- Q41.0Timberwolves Full timeout104–101
- Q42.1Moses Moody makes 25-foot three pointer (Cory Joseph assists)104–101
- Q44.0Cory Joseph enters the game for Dario Saric104–98
- Q44.0Warriors Full timeout104–98
- Q44.0Kyle Anderson makes free throw 2 of 2104–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:08Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot step back jumpshotMIN 92 – 89 GS · MIN 54% → 72% +18MIN 54% → 72%+18 pts
- Q44:47Chris Paul makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)MIN 92 – 92 GS · GS 28% → 46% +18GS 28% → 46%+18 pts
- Q42:05Dario Saric makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)MIN 96 – 98 GS · GS 38% → 67% +29GS 38% → 67%+29 pts
- Q41:07Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 99 – 98 GS · MIN 26% → 65% +39MIN 26% → 65%+39 pts
- Q49.1Mike Conley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 102 – 98 GS · MIN 83% → >99% +17MIN 83% → >99%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3.5
- MIN 64%
- Fair odds
- MIN -162
- GS +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 113.7 – 110.1 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +77 | −31 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +99 Elo | MIN 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 114.012th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.1 | Points allowed | 111.49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.7 | Margin | +2.611th of 30 |
| 17th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 112.010th of 30 |
| 1st of 30100.4 | Defense rating | 109.513th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.715th of 30 |
| 10th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.