Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints33
- Mike ConleyAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints38
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Dario SaricRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–110
- Q46.1Kyle Anderson defensive rebound116–110
- Q47.1Jonathan Kuminga misses driving layup116–110
- Q412.0Troy Brown Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2116–110
- Q412.0Troy Brown Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2115–110
- Q412.0Moses Moody shooting foul114–110
- Q412.0Kyle Anderson defensive rebound114–110
- Q412.0Brandin Podziemski misses two point shot114–110
- Q414.0Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound114–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:49Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 38 – 38 GS · MIN 51% → 59% +8MIN 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q25:30Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 28-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)MIN 43 – 40 GS · MIN 59% → 66% +8MIN 59% → 66%+8 pts
- Q311:49Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)MIN 54 – 54 GS · GS 34% → 42% +8GS 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q310:30Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointerMIN 58 – 58 GS · GS 34% → 43% +9GS 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q39:49Jaden McDaniels makes three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 63 – 58 GS · MIN 63% → 72% +8MIN 63% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 63%
- Fair odds
- MIN -155
- GS +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 113.5 – 110.1 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +70 | +2 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +89 Elo | MIN 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 114.411th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.3 | Points allowed | 110.910th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.1 | Margin | +3.59th of 30 |
| 18th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 112.47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3099.5 | Defense rating | 109.010th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.715th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.