Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints24
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints21
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–109
- Q41.0Jaylin Williams defensive rebound128–109
- Q42.0Lester Quinones misses 23-foot three point jumper128–109
- Q412.0shot clock turnover128–109
- Q436.1Brandin Podziemski makes two point shot (Gui Santos assists)128–109
- Q441.0Gui Santos offensive rebound128–107
- Q444.0Lester Quinones misses two point shot128–107
- Q41:00Josh Giddey makes dunk (Jaylin Williams assists)128–107
- Q41:16Vasilije Micic defensive rebound126–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:19Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 77 – 70 GS · OKC 70% → 78% +8OKC 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q35:48Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 28-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 84 – 75 GS · OKC 76% → 83% +7OKC 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q33:32Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)OKC 84 – 82 GS · GS 26% → 36% +10GS 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q32:36Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point shot (Vasilije Micic assists)OKC 87 – 83 GS · OKC 60% → 71% +10OKC 60% → 71%+10 pts
- Q32:05Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 90 – 83 GS · OKC 71% → 80% +9OKC 71% → 80%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3
- OKC 62%
- Fair odds
- OKC -164
- GS +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 115.2 – 111.4 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +87 | −31 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Draymond Green −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +87 Elo | OKC 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 112.916th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 110.88th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.9 | Margin | +2.211th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 111.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.7 | Defense rating | 109.08th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.5 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 7th of 296–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 29 |
| 1st of 303–1 | Road vs home | 1–426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−31 Elo- Draymond Green suspended by league−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 0–1 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.