Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints31
- Fred VanVleetAssists12
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints41
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–121
- Q40.0Rockets offensive team rebound115–121
- Q40.0Fred VanVleet misses 77-foot three point jumper115–121
- Q40.1Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2115–121
- Q40.1Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2115–120
- Q40.1(00:00.5) [Rockets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)115–119
- Q40.1Alperen Sengun personal foul115–119
- Q42.1Luka Doncic defensive rebound115–119
- Q42.1Fred VanVleet misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot115–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:32Derrick Jones Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)HOU 96 – 97 DAL · DAL 40% → 56% +16DAL 40% → 56%+16 pts
- Q46:48Jabari Smith Jr. makes layup (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 98 – 97 DAL · HOU 44% → 55% +11HOU 44% → 55%+11 pts
- Q46:25Kyrie Irving makes two point shot (Luka Doncic assists)HOU 98 – 99 DAL · DAL 45% → 56% +11DAL 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q46:04Derrick Jones Jr. makes two point shotHOU 98 – 101 DAL · DAL 56% → 67% +11DAL 56% → 67%+11 pts
- Q44:22Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)HOU 100 – 108 DAL · DAL 81% → 92% +11DAL 81% → 92%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1.5
- DAL 44%
- Fair odds
- DAL -103
- HOU +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 112.9 – 113.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +39 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | DAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +41 Elo | HOU 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 119.45th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.4 | Points allowed | 118.324th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +1.115th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.3 | Defense rating | 115.524th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 102.66th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.